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WMD

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Now that I know.. I may just reconsider my strategy... [Jun. 12th, 2010|10:04 pm]
WMD
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/__Story_Inserts/pdf/Japan_govtbond_ad.pdf
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Ph.D. Thesis Brainstormings - #1 of 1 / Also - Market Analysis and No-Shit Prediction of Armageddon [May. 31st, 2010|06:16 am]
WMD
If you didn't know, we've created life:

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16163154

Two excerpts:

"TO CREATE life is the prerogative of gods. Deep in the human psyche, whatever the rational pleadings of physics and chemistry, there exists a sense that biology is different, is more than just the sum of atoms moving about and reacting with one another, is somehow infused with a divine spark, a vital essence. It may come as a shock, then, that mere mortals have now made artificial life.

Craig Venter and Hamilton Smith, the two American biologists who unravelled the first DNA sequence of a living organism (a bacterium) in 1995, have made a bacterium that has an artificial genome—creating a living creature with no ancestor."

..

"It is now possible to conceive of a world in which new bacteria (and eventually, new animals and plants) are designed on a computer and then grown to order.

That ability would prove mankind’s mastery over nature in a way more profound than even the detonation of the first atomic bomb."


As someone with lengthy, life-threateningly intense Van-Damme-in-Tibet, Stalone-in-Russia style training in philosophy, this sparked something in me. That forgotten, unused philosophical muscle I had mostly written off twitched into existence a tiny and easily decimated idea (I'm sure). It was such a quick connection that I'm almost positive I'm not the first to think of it, and it's probably already been beaten like a ginger by some swinging cock philosophy professor at the world's best community college.

Now that we've gotten my confidence problem out of the way, here is my little belch of genius:

Science creating life provides, for the first time in history, a legitimate inductive argument for the existence of God.

For those among you not reading this who don't know what induction is, just think about this, my favorite example: "How do you know the sun will come up tomorrow? Because it always has in the past - every experience you've had of the sun coming up or not coming up is ONLY the sun coming up."

Now, every experience we've had of the creation of life includes an act of creation. How do we know that life requires a creator? Because every time we have seen life come into existence in the past, it has required a creator. Therefore, for life to spring into existence, a creator is always required.

This is only one time, and would probably be considered a pretty weak inductive argument. Nevertheless, it is legitimate, however laughable it may seem to us to think that because something happened once, it always happens that way.

A more recent philosophy student, 10 years younger than me with what is probably much more passion (watching passionate teenagers is like watching old people shit themselves - you let it go because they can't help it, and probably have no conception of how retarded they look, but Jesus Christ. Honestly.)

Regardless, it felt good to exercise that muscle. It's one of many I've been neglecting this year, for the sake of studying and manipulating the global economy and its various unintelligible instruments for my own ruthless, greedy, profitable ends. Mostly, those ends are sating my curiosity and understanding how everything works (also I should mention money - I like money), which I've been doing in various unfocused manners for most of my life. Philosophy, psychology, politics, and even music theory, I suppose. I'm a generalist, and barely employable because of it, except accidentally as a result of 20 fat years of sitting in front of a computer, finding ever more complicated and technically difficult ways of cataloging porn.

That's not entirely true.

But to anyone who wonders how I could bury myself in such a bland subject as global finance, rest assured, the way I do it - with charts and indicators, full of pretty colors and action points, is like a gigantic money-making video game.

For anyone left on livejournal that actually ends up reading this, interested parties can go to:

www.thinkorswim.com

and open up an account, download the (video game-like) platform, and paper-trade. They give you $100 large to play with. Which I'm proud to say I turned into $150 in 3 days. And then forgot about, because it's paper money, and now I'm back to $115. She's an unforgiving bitch, the monopoly-money market, and I never use stops.

In the real-money market, I trade options, which is kind of difficult lately as the volatility has made them very expensive. But - that day 3 weeks ago when the market crashed? :) Luckily, I was entirely short, and had been for 3 days. I made a fortune. While other people were being wiped out entirely, my account size doubled in a matter of 10 minutes. I don't know if any of you care. Probably not, but I don't have anyone to brag to about this except other traders, and that's probably rude, especially if they were on the other side that day... But, I thank them kindly for their money.

By the way, I have been looking at a lot of charts for the past year. I can pretty much tell you whether a stock is going up or down, short term (save for some crazy, unforeseen event.. like BP's massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, which while I'm talking about it, I should say scares the hell out of me, especially if it starts seeping into the Gulf Stream). The chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which goes back over 100 years, tells me that we are on the brink of a crash the likes of which has never been seen(! Muahahahahahaaa!), and a major global depression is 2-3 years away. Seriously, this is what the bones are telling me, and this particular bone's predictive pattern is one of the most reliable.

We are resting directly on a trendline begun in 1929, at the very top. And it looks like it's going to break. When it does, it's a very, very long way down. I'm not being hyperbolic - this is scaring (and exciting) the hell out of every trader and economist paying attention. We all noticed at exactly the same time, and the chatter is chilling. If the entire stock market were the chart of a single stock, right about now (we have one bounce left, I think) is when everyone would be selling. We are completing a 30 year topping pattern on a centuries old market. Topping as in, the market will try to get as high as it was in the 2000s, but won't be able to. When people realize that the top is already in, they are going to head to the exits, all at the same time.

Some people regard chart analysis as nonsense, useless, religious hokum. It's not - and regardless of whether at one time it wasn't, enough people believe it is that it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Enough people see a pattern, and recognize what it means for the future, and buy or sell accordingly. All at the same time. This drives price far enough in one direction or the other to create a snowball effect. Regarding this topping, head and shoulders pattern (look it up) in the stock market (not just the Dow, but the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, and all other major indices), the point of all of what happens in markets is price discovery - what is a particular thing worth? When we realize that our market cannot reach prior valuation, it will unleash a torrent of selling lasting for years. Maybe decades.

Now, there is a strong presupposition of predetermination here - everything that will happen has already been decided and free will must be an illusion. This is abhorrent to me, and yet, the behavior of markets and the psychology that drives them does seem to follow predictable patterns. In these patterns and their symmetry, in the mathematical beauty of the path price takes, I see the face of God. The markets are a natural manifestation. Like a leaf or a seashell, pi and the golden rule, there is an order to the chaos, and understanding it is an almost spiritual undertaking. Priests read bibles. I read charts.

It will sometimes take a systemic shock to drive the market up or down significantly - the collapse of the sub-prime market occurred just as the chart was topping, and the meltdown that followed in the fall of 08 was entirely normal, as equity patterns go. The invention of the internet - drove the market up to (at the time) historically unthinkable highs. Dow 10,000 had been an impossible dream even as late as 1995, but then it happened, and life was a party. Nowadays we're terrified when it closes below 10,000. Not that that number has any real significance, but it's a nice round number, and the human mind cares about that.

That's a digression, though - what I'm trying to say is that historical events happen within the context of this predictable chart action. The Greek debt crisis that threatens to rip apart the European Union and destroy its currency came to a head at exactly the time the market indexes touched the bottoms of multiple technically important levels. Technically, and I apologize but probably unintelligibly - The Dow touched the bottom of its 200 week moving average. It also touched bottom of the 161% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the previous correction, and the 61% retracement from the 08 crash. It also touched the bottom of a separate, 100-year long trendline (we are between the two most actionable right now). To anyone with even a passing knowledge of technical analysis, all of these are major resistance points, but all of them occurring at the same exactly price level and point in time is downright impossible. It's like the hand of god came down and gently pressed itself upon the market, and a deep voice boomed from the heavens, "This far - no farther."

None of that matters, and nobody will understand it anyway. The point is that at exactly where the chart said the market should stop going higher (and said so in a statistically impossible confluence of ways), and the reason I positioned my account for a major fall, history happened.

And to be clear, this European crisis IS major, and historic, and if my chart analysis is right, looks like the opening scene of the final act, signaling to us the end of an era. I think that the nature of the crisis in Europe probably holds the key to making sense of what will happen next. This is a debt crisis, and so will be the rest of this armageddon. Everyone owes more money than they can possibly pay back - especially when there is no one that isn't in debt, and everyone owes everyone else.

Anyway, I'm gonna use the end of Western Civilization to make a fortune, and I'll see you all on my bread lines. I'll be looking down at you, rich with fresh baked bread and an ocean of gold.
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403 - Forbidden [Jul. 5th, 2008|08:15 pm]
WMD
Since I am no longer allowed to post in a certain friend's livejournal, I couldn't respond to this:

[info]seamusd
2008-07-04 02:20 am UTC (link) Track This
Summer class meets, what, three days a week? Five days a week? I'd tell the late student that she will be marked absent 1/3 of the time if she continues coming in late, at least on the grounds that her coming late disturbs the other students.

As a matter of principle and policy, I do not accept electronically submitted assignments.


But I liked my unacceptable response so much I'll just post it here:

Entitled "NEEEEERDSSSSS"
<<<
I'm not particularly disturbed when students arrive late. Whether I'm there to learn or otherwise. Not the way I'm disturbed by, say, granny incest, or the idea of enjoying a hamburger. Which I do.

I think arriving late displays a healthy and attractive castigation of the status quo. In fact, I encourage my minority classmates to rise up. Revolt! Especially the women, and nerds. Don't come to class at all, nerds.

Although, I do fully adhere to a similar principle of No Electronically Submitted Assignments. There's something very fundamentally and teleologically sound in the rejection of motherf'ing email.
>>>


Man, loosen up! Tightass.
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life of pie [Jun. 7th, 2008|08:02 pm]
WMD
Alright, so I guess I should post something like a real LJ update, since according to my LiveJournal homepage, it's been a very lucky 13 weeks since I last did so.

Very lucky is an overstatement. As many things have gone wrong as have gone right, but as life goes, that's a pretty lucky ratio. Or so some people would say. Not me. All I can say is, "Who wants cake?" They all want cake.

I want a perfect body.

And cake.

Sadly, an unfortunate incident involving a garbage can, a raccoon, and my left hand had rendered me with the inability to cut my cake or exercise as much as usual for most of the last 13 weeks. Two weeks ago I got my cast off, and as it turns out, I now have a hideous adamantium deposit beneath the skin above my pinky, which looks like a sixth knuckle, but doesn't act like one.

The unbright side of having this kind of deformity is being judged for it, and being unloved. Any of you who have ever had an extra (or missing) appendage, a grotesque cancer of the mouth, or gas, knows this shame.

Lucky for me I'm not you! I have Lisa!- who, despite making a several disgusted faces and a very noticeable attempt not to touch my extra knuckle, has stuck with me throughout the ordeal. I love her dearly for it, and I'm sure I can find a way to incorporate this knuckle into one of our many sexual "outfits". Phantom Limb of the Opera? The Phantom Fister? Billy Zane as The Phantom? Fuck it. Billy Zane.

The sad fact of our getting back together (and really, at this point, I'm aware that at no point are we ever actually "apart". Save it.) is the loss of a friend a la Sean Lennon, but without the sex. Or the motorcycle accident. Lies, broken promises, and mistrusts confirmed, amid accusations from all sides and all comers of jealousy, insecurity, and pathological snoopiness. You can all go to hell. You're fucking wrong, I'm fucking right, and we all know it. And it's a very depressing and Pyrrhic victory.

Enough of that.

I got a new car! It's a beautiful, black 2008 Nissan Altima! Go google that shit and drool. But not on my pretty car, for it eats up half my motherfucking paycheck for the time being, but is necessary, as sister got her license back and there was nothing left for me to drive.

I may be getting a raise and a promotion - my project manager is leaving and there is no one else who can do the job as well as me. Then again, I may not, because I was hired to go on the road, and not to manage projects. And I may get a raise, being as my one-year anniversary approaches quickly, but then again - I may not, being as I have taken many, many, too many days off. But what can they say? I do awesome work and they would lose time and money hiring and training someone else. That's job security, baby.

Class starts in the fall. One class, maybe two. For the next three months I must focus all energy on earning my MCSE, which will cost money and but which will make me much more.

I guess that's about my whole life, really. Work, Lisa, exercise, studying, new car, discarded friend, broken hand. Also I read a lot of articles on the internet and often pick my nose.
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(no subject) [Jun. 7th, 2008|03:27 pm]
WMD
BACK WITH LISA LAST 3 MONTHS.

IT'S REALLY GREAT.

LOOOOOVE<3333



Edit:

Really, though. That's not a joke.
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update [Mar. 6th, 2008|09:38 pm]
WMD
It's been over a month since I've posted in here, and I guess a lot has happened since then. Then again, a lot hasn't. Some things have been terribly constant. And when I say "terribly", I don't mean "very". I mean it as in the way Ivan the Terrible was terrible, and the way Vlad the Impaled met his end. I guess I'll start with those.

Lisa and I broke up. Duh. In a lot of ways it hasn't felt like it, though. We still go barely two days without fighting for some stupid reason, some of which I take the blame for. It hasn't just been hard getting over her - it's been hard getting over the resentment I feel for her. I think I'm justified in feeling it, but the desire to express it to her is very immature, and not what Jesus would do. Jesus also wouldn't intersperse these expressions of hatred with songs of love, but I do that also. In my defense - I wouldn't have, but I let myself talk to her, and there was love there, and for any of you who have felt that kind of admiration and comfort, you know how impossibly trying it is to detach yourself from. Especially when it was given so rarely. At the moment, I don't blame Lisa for this, though I'm sure in a few hours my brain chemistry will change and lean my soul towards evil.

In hindsight, this is no different than most of our relationship. The same exact problems have manifested in the aftermath, but in different forms. Sometimes God is a burning bush; sometimes he's an apocalyptic wrath of vengeance. Sometimes he's a hard-on. So it is with love. I think, though, after today, there won't be any more contact. I'm sure of it, and I'll make sure of it.


In other news, I love my job. I run around the office all day, asking questions, learning, teaching, sharing knowledge, laughter, and frankly half my life, at 45 hours a week at this fucking place. When I'm not there, though, I go all over the country. I teach people, and work and shit. But also I see interesting things, and meet some very interesting people. Monday I go to Rochester. Next month, Boston. Soon, though, I'm doing an install at Cedars Sinai in L.A. That's Hollywood, baby. I had to trade a trip to Hawaii for it, but I wanted Hollywood more. Everyone thinks I'm dumb, but I'd rather see stars than fat, brown natives who offer me nothing more than a plastic necklace and a smile. Stars will spit on me, and I will save their spit, and one day drink it in a desperate moment of faithless prayer.

I recently had my yearly review, and might as well have been blown by my two bosses, for all they said about me. Blown without release, though, because I was admonished for fully half an hour for being tardy and absent. It felt like high school, except I got a raise. Not as large a raise as I would have gotten, though, had I shown up more, on time. C'est la vie! It's worth it. If they fire me now, they're a little bit fucked. A little bit more than a little bit, if I can glean anything from their half-hearted verbal blowjob.

When I'm not hanging out with people on the road, and when I'm not hanging out with Lisa (which now, is never), I hang out with other people. New people. Several new people whom I hesitate to name, and who don't number as high as the count of people who HAVE asked me to hang out. Which actually doesn't include my oldest, dearest friends, whom I've neglected lately. One for a very good reason, which I won't go into, but that's okay, now. Things are stable, on the high-wire. Most of this has been for the sake of laying in bed, playing video games, reading books, and making the internet feel useful (i.e. making myself miserable and/or making friends). And exercising.

Which has been working - I'm losing weight. It hasn't been all that difficult, truly, just time consuming. And that's all I have to say about that.

That's all I have to say about all of it, actually. Life is good, for the most part.
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Good morning, Jersey. [Oct. 22nd, 2007|04:15 am]
WMD
It's currently 1:15am in Tucson, Arizona, though it feels more like 4:15 to me. I should be sleeping - I have to wake up in 5 and 1/2 hours to go to University Physician's Healthcare and do what it is that I do now. That is, teach and support the installation of ultrasound imaging/reporting software.

I can't sleep though. This room is too nice. It's two rooms. It's a friggin' apartment with two TVs, a couch, a king sized bed, wireless internet, a dishwasher, a microwave.. all overlooking a gorgeous pool and jacuzzi that I might make use of tomorrow if it's hot enough outside. This is my home for the next 5 days.

After which I go back to Vegas, where I was earlier today, and stay at the Excalibur casino for a night. All paid for by my boss as a gift for going on this installation. In addition to free food and gas for the entire week, and $250 extra on top of my regular salary.

This job is pretty much heaven, whether I'm on the road or not. I'm good at it, I learn something (usually multiple somethings) new every day. I make a pretty decent amount of money. It's amazing, and I love it, and I feel very, very guilty for it.


On top of the awesome job, there's also been awesome love recently. Somehow Lisa and I managed to pull through the last month to end up stronger and more stable than ever. It was probably the most trying month of the last two years, but hope springs eternal. I hope this lasts.

I never see Kameron anymore. Much less any of my other friends. This isn't of my own choosing - I'm on the road half the time, and when I'm not, I get home from work at 8pm and immediately work out. This leaves me with 2 or 3 hours of the day to relax. On the weekends he sees Jamie. Lately, I see Lisa. I don't know how to remedy this situation.

My father is very, very sick. And he has had a very shitty job for most of his life. Hence my guilt for being successful, which taints and admonishes every bit of joy that this job brings me. It's really depressing, and I don't know why I mention it now except that it occupies a large enough percentage of my consciousness that an update on the state of my life would be incomplete without doing so.


I would like to go to UMass for graduate school. New England is gorgeous, for one, but more importantly, UMass has one of the few public policy programs in the country with an explicit specialization in Science, Technology & Society. Also, it has Lisa<3. By the time I get there I'll have several more technical certificates, and by the time I graduate, I'll be on my way to designing and implementing governmental technology policy. This is my dream career - the two things that sincerely interest me combined into one specialization that I doubt many other people can claim for themselves.

So, aside from friends and family, my life is on track. My writing has suffered, though. I can tell as I write this how sorely out of practice I am. Graduate school will help this - next year I take 3 preliminary courses at Willy P. Two years from now I start en masse. This year I earn several technical certifications so that by the time I move to MA I'm making $60k a year, living in my (our) own apartment, and paying for school.

Time for sleep.
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today [Sep. 20th, 2007|07:12 pm]
WMD
i cried on the way home. harder than i can remember crying for over a year. i'm so exhausted, and i miss you so much.

i'm so sorry it couldn't work. why couldn't it? i don't know, i really don't. the good times were amazing, and you were always so beautiful. you still are. i don't want to talk about any of the bad right now. what they led up to makes me fucking sick.

this has been a very bad week. last week was without humanity. stable, structured. like the military. that has its place. maybe not in my life, though. you can only pretend to empty your heart and mind for so long before they remind you how full they are and why you had to start pretending in the first place.

what the hell am i even saying?

two years of my life. so much energy, so much time. for what? this is a terrible reward.

no matter what i do, which strategy i use (and there are only two, love and its absence), i don't know how to be mature.

here is a poem i found:

Even
After
All this time
The sun never says to the earth,

"You owe
Me."

Look
What happens
With a love like that,
It lights the
Whole
Sky.

goodbye lis. i love you.
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To Infinity! .. AND BEYOND! [Dec. 7th, 2006|07:43 pm]
WMD
This is 2006, and I will be 26 on the 26th. I was born to my mother when she was 26 at 6 pounds, 2 ounces and am currently 6 feet, 2 inches tall. 6 + 2 = 8 which is my favorite number, and also the symbol for infinity. As Warren approaches infinity, this entry approaches stupid.
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Question meme. [Sep. 5th, 2006|04:21 pm]
WMD
[Current Mood |indescribable]

I haven't updated in a while, and there's no reason to, really.

But here's something, anyway.

As continued from Phoebe's LJ: questions by her.

Something in me resents that these questions resemble so closely the first chapter of a self-help workbook.


1. What do you hope to accomplish in the next year? In the next ten years?

I'm taking a break from doing LSAT practice questions in order to answer these much, much easier questions, so there's one thing: to take the LSAT. Just to see my score. There's not really any other reason than that, except that I'm going to apply to law school by January. Oh yeah: to get accepted to law school, and possibly start going. I haven't looked into how soon after being accepted classes can be taken, but if at all possible I'd like to start taking those classes within the year. This will bring me one step closer to my within-ten year goal of complete financial self-sufficience. Within the year I'd also like to move the fuck out already, though I'm not sure how feasible that is. There are various physical fitness goals I've set for myself that I won't bore you with, also. This all leads to what I'd definitely like to achieve by age 35: acceptance to the FBI or CIA. A law degree and ungodly physical prowess are necessary for that. I would also like to be married, or something like married, which I think is probably necessary for my lifelong goal of achieving total spiritual creaminess.

2. If you could recommend only one book to the world, ever, what would it be, and why?

How To Win Friends and Influence People. Just kidding. Not really though. When I first read this question my first instinct was to say "The Bible". Problem though: I haven't read most of it. What I do appreciate is how influential it's been on every piece of literature to come after it and how significantly it's impacted the course of history, including every single thought we each have, and every action we take. But since I haven't read that one, I'm going to have to say Moby Dick. First off, the imagery is about as dark as it gets, and that's cool. The way the words have been put together is just.. stunningly beautiful. Almost every passage in the book has layer upon layer of philosophical and psychological implications that cut, really, into the thickest meat of the human experience, especially as concerns the characters of Ahab and Ishmael - the embodiments of perseverence and open-minded analysis, respectively. Both of those are central, uh.. values, in my life.

3. Why Superman?
Aside from getting hooked on the movies at a very young age, Superman is an icon of manliness. Every way that I think a man - every way that I think I - should be, he is. Fearless, powerful, compassionate, intelligent, humble, honest, just, AMERICAN. His strength emanates from within (and also from his close proximity to Earth's yellow sun) - he radiates the self-assuredness a person needs to take real, decisive action. That is not to say that I am all of these things - I have certainly been afraid, weak, insensitive, stupid, proud, dishonest, vengeful, indecisive, and downright unAmerican in my life, but I strive to be better, and that's what a hero should inspire you to do. Also he's got a sweet ass and I enjoy the idea of fooling people into thinking I'm something other than I am, and then springing my awesomeness on them out of the blue.

4. If you could change anything about yourself (physically, emotionally, mentally), would you? And if so, what would it be?

Certainly I'd give myself a perfect body; a perfect soul. I'd make myself as hot, secure, and intelligent as as person could be. But at what price? What do I even mean?

Look, I just want to not be fat. That would solve so many other problems. One day soon.


5. Out of those you know personally, who do you admire most, and what's wonderful about this person?

I seriously think she might be dead, because I haven't heard from her in a month, but Joanne. She has defied every stereotype about pretty, dumb blondes there is, and in the process become the most successful, and one of the most intelligent, versatile, self-sufficient people I've ever known. What I admire most in her is what I lack most dearly: self-discipline and a strong work-ethic. I'm such a lazy fuck. Or I have been, for the past year. She's 26 with a master's degree, an amazing job doing what she loves, her own apartment and a shitload of money saved, several of her own businesses on the side, including one that's actually creative, an unflinching physical and mental fitness regimen, and the well cultivated ability to develop semi-long-lasting intimate relationships. She works with handicapped children, entertaining them and helping them overcome their handicaps. With music. Who can beat that? I could have said John for this one, too, because he has the same work-ethic that brought Joanne so far, but she's done so much more with it, so, Joanne wins. FATALITY.
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